Forecasting

If an important element of your business are dynamically changing phenomena or processes, the effects of which can surprise you, learn about our tools for analysis and forecasting of random events. Thanks to them, you will be able to confine the dynamic variability of time series or probability fields to useful forecasts and recommendations of actions so that randomness does not surprise you and that you are one step ahead of it or use it to your advantage.

Forecasting of volatility of complex systems

Forecasting of the volatility of random data in time or space of stochastic signals using SPASS. The forecasting areas currently offered by pSci relate to:

  1. Energy market – price forecasts for hourly contracts for the DAM, Intra-day and Balancing Markets,

  2. Financial markets – price forecasts for quotations for stock exchanges and FOREX,

  3. Commodity markets,

  4. Predictive maintenance.

The forecasts provided by pSci may concern the variability of individual values or the total volatility of their groups. Forecasts in the second option allow for the composition of effective investment portfolios with given parameters. The forecasts provided may have several forms:

  1. A single value that corresponds to the most expected random event. This value is obtained as a result of two-range analysis of probability distributions of events. The analysis is carried out in the frequency range of events and their information content.

  2. Full probability distribution of the occurrence of random events. This form allows independent analysis.

  3. The combination of results from p.1 and p.2

Other possible application areas for SPASS forecasts are: maintenance forecasting or demand planning.

Samples of distributions:

Prognoza zmienności cen energii w kontraktach godzinowych dla wybranego dnia

Rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa cen energii dla wybranych godzin doby